A few days after CES 2011 and its announcements re Skype on mobile devices and Skype on TV, the daily maximum of Skype users concurrently online has quickly risen from 25 million to just shy of 29 million. Hudson Barton’s meticulous tracking demonstrates the long term growth of this statistic.

Last summer, when Skype filed for an IPO, they announced that, during the April to June, 2010 quarter, over 125 million unique users had made at least one call on Skype during the quarter. Today, with via a press release announcing a major expansion of the Skype Access WiFi service, Skype announced that over 145 million users had made at least one Skype call during the quarter ending December 31, 2010.

The number came with one caveat: “excluding users connected via joint venture partners”. One would have to assume this number does not include calls made via the carrier-specific services that use Skype, namely, Skype mobile on Verizon (with over 80 million subscribers to whom Verizon’s Skype mobile client was “pushed” to all supported phones) and the nine 3 services in Europe, Hong Kong and Australia.

Two questions:

1. What is driving this growth acceleration? Is it simply an outcome of the announcements at CES 2011? or is it virally driven by more awareness of Skype’s services? Is Group Video Calling contributing to this increase? Or, with over 10 million downloads in the first two weeks of its release, is it the launch of video calling on Skype for iPhone?

2. How many of these new subscribers are buying Skype’s revenue generating services? This was a major concern that arose out of the IPO registration document, where only 8% of Skype users were actually buying services such as SkypeOut, Online numbers and Voice mail?

Bottom line is that two different measurements confirm that Skype usage is on an accelerated growth path, at least during the first quarter of 2011. And, finally, it appears that Skype is measuring its growth by a more realistic statistic of  “active” users rather than the total number of Skype accounts (now over 600 million) which appears to have resulted in about 80% of all Skype accounts created since 2003 having gone stale over time.

Related articles

• Skype for Mac 5, Skype for iPhone 3.0.1 – Upgrade Wednesday (voiceontheweb.biz)

When I interviewed Skype CEO Josh Silverman at CES 2010 in January, I had asked about the timing for a Skype IPO. Josh’s response:

“We’ll see. We don’t have a timeline for it. Our focus is to build a really great company. When we’re ready and the markets are ready, we’ll consider an IPO. At some point investors will want an exit, of course, but they’ re really taking  a long term point-of-view. This is not a quick flip; this is about building one of the great companies of technology.”

Today “long term” was defined as something between nine and fourteen months. Nine months after being taken private by an investment group lead by Silver Lake, Skype announced, through a blog post by Josh Silverman, they had filed a preliminary prospectus for an IPO. With a road show and other pre-IPO activities we’re probably three to five months from seeing the final transaction happen.

The prospectus makes for interesting read about both Skype’s business model and the communications infrastructure transition wrought by new technologies. Key Skype performance data includes:

• 2010 Jan-Jun revenues of $406.2MM vs same period 2009 of $324.8MM, an increase of 25.1%
• “Adjusted” EBITDA increase by 59.3% from $75.2MM to 115.8MM over the same periods
• $37MM in capital expenditures budgeted for 2010 vs $13.5MM spent in 2009

and some interesting user data:

One should really think of “Registered Users” as “Registered Accounts”. Especially with Skype for Business becoming more active, there will be a rise in accounts but lots of reasons for stagnant or dead accounts. (Personally I manage, via Skype Manager, over 25 accounts with about 15 users but really only use two of them for my own ongoing activities. The other users were created for one or more business activities and )

Most interesting are the “connected users” numbers, defined as “average monthly number for the three months ended [on] the date [shown on the x-axis]”. While Skype is showing a current number of 124 million“connected users” for the quarter ended Jun30, 2010  Hudson Barton’s “real users” number – which is more an indication of daily users on line is currently running at about 60 million.

The increase in paying users is the most significant number of interest. The prospectus confirms that SkypeOut represents Skype’s number one source of revenue and this number is the best indicator of how quickly these revenues can grow.

One other interesting metric relates to calling minutes, broken down as”

• Communications services billing minutes (SkypeOut minutes): from 5.0B in H1 2009 to 6.4B in H1 2010, a 28% increase somewhat consistent with the revenue increase, and
• Skype-to-Skype minutes: from 49.1 billion in H1 2009 to 88.4 billion in H1 2010, a 80% increase confirming that “free” really is the key marketing strategy for increasing Skype users and Skype usage.

Bottom line: Skype continues to grow at double digit rates but they are about to enter a phase where marketing activities and business communications services will become vital to sustaining its growth. Yet, regulatory and competitive issues will also become a significant factor and a real test of how willing governments are able to adapt to technological change as opposed to sustaining cost-inefficient legacy telecommunications operations whose fundamental business models are threatened. For the first time, we’ll be able to view quarterly the business success of Skype as an independent business operation.

There’s lots of other interesting marketing information and financial data in the prospectus but that leaves room for additional posts. And the statements re regulatory issues have the makings of several discussions.

Note that while $100MM has been put out as the amount to be raised, it was apparently only used as a metric to assist with determining SEC filing fees. The actual amount to be raised has yet to be announced.

Other posts:

• Dan York, Disruptive Communications: Skype, less than a year after eBay sale, files for $100 million IPO
• Business Insider SAI: Skype Spent $343.8 Million To Acquire Its P2P Software From Founders
• Andy Abramson, VoIP Watch: Skype To Go Public makes a couple of interesing points:

Now, going public brings with it a whole new set of responsibilities, not only SEC quarterly reporting.

For Skype’s lead investors, Silver Lake Partners, this is their opportunity to cash out. For many of the employees at Skype this is their chance for a nice reward for all the hard work they’ve put in over the past year.

• GigaOm: Skype Files for IPO

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• Skype Going Public With $100 Million IPO (thenextweb.com)
• Skype files for IPO (theglobeandmail.com)
• Skype Files For $100 Million IPO (techcrunch.com) (This one includes a block diagram of the various companies involved)
• Internet calling service Skype files for IPO (sfgate.com)
• GIPS, Google and All That Co-opetition Jazz! (voiceontheweb.biz)
• SkypeKit: “Naked” Skype Support Arrives for Hardware-Embedded Skype and PC Applications (voiceontheweb.biz)

At last month’s CES I had the opportunity to meet with Skype CEO Josh Silverman and discuss various Skype issues that have arisen over the past year as well as where Skype is headed as a privately owned company. At the time I thought this would result in a normal text-based blog post outlining some of our discussion.

However, when I arrived for the interview I realized it would also be a good occasion to try out the HD video recording feature of a relatively new Canon SD980 camera. Over the past week I have been using a new MacBook’s iMovie and found I could edit it down to a fairly succinct outcome, having eliminated much of my own nervous glitches, personal comments and humming and hawing. Most importantly, Josh makes a much better presenter of Skype’s case than I could ever hope to do in reporting on the interview. The result follows.

In this first portion we talk about

• Skype operating as an independent, private company and the role the new board members can play,
• the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board’s participation as an investor (full disclosure – about 17 million employed or formerly employed Canadians have an interest in CPPIB investments),
• what performance numbers can we expect to see going forward
• the prospects for an IPO
• what’s on the CEO’s radar as priorities for Skype
• what’s going to be available for developer partners

(My apologies to fellow Canadians for not asking about Skype Online numbers in Canada but, given there are regulatory issues involved, I’d probably get the standard “we’d love to do it but…” response. For mention of a Skype service that is being expanded into Canada, see the second portion of the interview with Skype for Mobile VP & GM Russ Shaw.)

In the second portion of the conversation we covered issues such as

• the growth of the Skype developer team
• Skype’s evolving mobile presence, including Skype for BlackBerry and video calling on mobile devices
• the launch of a formal Skype for Business program
• Skype’s video calling as a new pop culture
• Skype and the broadcast television market

Complementary to the “pop culture” discussion here, at Josh’s keynote presentation to the CES Innovation Leaders dinner, he spoke about how Skype video calling has brought to consumers the most effective realization of AT&T’s 1964 World’s Fair video calling vision where they introduced a very primitive video calling setup.

Bottom line: what can we expect to see from Skype in 2010?

• a revitalized developer program built around a more comprehensive platform from which developers can, amongst other features, embed Skype into their applications
• Skype access on many more mobile platforms as well as taking advantage of wireless carriers’ recognition of Skype as a mainstream telecommunications environment
• expansion of video calling services, including a strong role in the introduction of Internet services as a feature on a new generation of television sets;
• launch of a formal comprehensive Skype for Business program targeted at small-to-medium businesses
• many more Skype video interviews on broadcast media – for example, Skype video (and voice) calling has been used quite extensively by several networks to facilitate communications with Haiti following the earthquake

This is the third of three Skype executive interviews that took place at CES 2010; the others:

• Skype for Mobile: An Interview with Skype’s Russ Shaw
• Skype for Business: An Interview with Skype’s Matt Jordan

Other relevant posts:

• FREETALK Connect: Liberating Small Business from the Telco Oligopoly
• FREETALK’s New Webcam Product Line: Delivering 720p HD to Skype Video Calling
• Skype Video Calling on Your TV? Maybe, Maybe Not: It’s Your Call

Full disclosure: In Store Solutions, producer of the FREETALK line of hardware for Skype, has become a client of Denali InterConneXions, publisher of Voice On The Web, building on the author’s previous business development experience with establishing partnerships that can assist with the promotion of a primary vendor’s offerings. A more complete statement will follow shortly.

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• Verizon Plans to Put Skype on its Phones (mashable.com)
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• Business Long Distance: Death By a Million PBX’s, Part II (voiceontheweb.biz)
• iotum’s Calliflower Conference Call Service Adds Skype Access (voiceontheweb.biz)
• Skype: the “Unofficial” Personal Communications Software for the 2010 Winter Olympics? (voiceontheweb.biz)
• Reprise: Is WiFi Becoming the Unregulated Stealth Carrier of the Future? (voiceontheweb.biz)
• Demythifying the Skype Developer Story (voiceontheweb.biz)
• History Making Smartphone Skype Call During LeWeb Closing Session (voiceontheweb.biz)
• Coming Real Soon Now: Skype for iPhone over 3G (voiceontheweb.biz)
• IM+ for Skype Brings Free VoIP Calling to BlackBerry (geardiary.com)
• Skype Starting To Support 720p HD Video Calls (ghacks.net)

Today Ireland’s favorite communications entrepreneur, Pat Phelan, put up a post: “How Popular is Skype, really?” Shows the potential for both Skype and its (prospective) partners, should the new executive team be able to execute on a restructured Skype and a viable partner program. And it shows the relative magnitude of the challenge that Truphone, Jajah and Rebtel are up against as they try to grow their business.

Guest Post by Hudson Barton, The Borderless Communicator

2008 is turning out to be a great year for Skype growth (real users), nearly matching the record year of 2006. In my view, the patterns of Skype growth are affected by:

1. The popularity (name recognition) of the software itself… in comparison to communications alternatives.
2. The capability of computers and mobile communication devices.
3. The quality and capability of the software for multi-modal communication… in comparison to communications alternatives.
4. The state of the world economy
5. The availability of broadband

So for 2009 here is how things are shaping up.

• Skype has no discernable marketing program. It never has. Skype relies almost entirely upon word-of-mouth. If Skype were to introduce a marketing program, the opportunity for growth could be significant. There seems to be zero prospect for such a marketing plan.
• The power of computers will grow marginally. The capability of mobile devices, especially smartphones, will grow hugely. The latter is a real opportunity for Skype if it can develop quality software for the most popular platforms such as the iPhone, BlackBerry and Nokia N- and E-series. On the other hand, if the world economy sinks, then few people will be buying those new computers and mobile devices. Overall, this is not going to affect 2009 growth significantly.
• The overall quality and capability of Skype client software will improve marginally. Aside from bringing out client software for mobile platforms, upcoming improvements in the client (especially video and audio) will affect Skype growth only on the margins.
• Because Skype/Skype calling is free, and both SkypeIn and SkypeOut are very inexpensive, it is reasonable to assume that a poor economy is good for Skype in terms of its market share of communications. However, the overall market for communications may well decline in a bad economy. So while a declining economy is not good for Skype, it is less bad than for Skype’s competitors.
• The availability of broadband is a very important factor in the growth of Skype’s “real users”.

Summary: Skype growth (as measured by “real users”) will continue on its current trajectory (averaging around 830,000 new “real users” per month). That is a huge number by anyone’s standard. As in prior years, growth will be strong in the first quarter, slack in the second and third quarters, and strong in the fourth quarter.

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Yesterday UK web publication TelecomTV put out a post “Skype claims mobiles are involved in a quarter of its calls“. But a “correction” comment by the author, Tony Chan, disclaims his basic premise:

CORRECTION: As the original author of this story for CommsDay, I am corrected by Skype that the 4 billion minute figure is actually for Skype-to-Skype minutes with video, NOT mobile.

Turns out to be a confirmation of what we have heard in the past: 25% to 30% of all Skype-to-Skype calls invoke video calling.

So how can one generate Skype-to-Skype minutes from a mobile device? What % of Skype-to-Skype minutes are generated from a mobile device?

• iSkoot: sets up a Skype session on their server using information delivered from the iSkoot client on a supported mobile device, such as BlackBerry or Nokia N-Series. When you make a Skype call, it’s Skype-to-Skype from the iSkoot server to your called Skype contact.
• Skypephone: uses iSkoot’s algorithm with the one difference. 3 has set up their own “iSkoot” servers to support this service. As of October 1, 3 customers using iSkoot or a Skypephone can now make SkypeOut calls from any 3 Skype-enabled phone also.
• Skype for Windows Mobile: here the limitation is the small, and decreasing, market share for Windows Mobile devices. It requires either a WiFi connection or 3G but the former is favored but both call quality and robustness reasons. But you can make both Skype-to-Skype and SkypeOut calls from this client. (And it’s the only instance of a true Skype VoIP client on mobile device — challenging both processor speeds and battery life.)
• Skype for Mobile – currently at a beta stage with limited outbound calling; this service fundamentally uses the same architecture as iSkoot. (I suspect iSkoot has any appropriate intellectual property protected under this. After all, Skype and iSkoot are working together on Skypephone, etc. But it is interesting to experience the difference in user interfaces between iSkoot and Skype for Mobile) Again this does not put the full VoIP client on the device but rather back at a server. Probably not too many minutes here yet.
• Update: Mobivox CEO Peter Diedrich emailed to remind me that their voice-enabled service also has the ability to launch Skype-to-Skype voice calls. From any landline or mobile handset worldwide the caller makes a “local” call to VoxGirl who, in turn, launches and connects to a Skype session on a Mobivox server. Effectively creating a landline- or mobile-to-Skype call, Mobivox requires no downloads or client software. VoxGirl will determine presence information to decide whether to proceed with a call; however, there is no IM/chat capability.
• I have described my experience with Fring for iPhone when it launched almost two months ago. My problem with any iPhone application of this nature is that there is currently no background processing such that you can allow an IM session to run in background while executing other applications.

And how successful has 3′s Skypephone service been? We initially heard some qualitative information at eComm 2008 last spring. But, information supplied by Skype’s PR this morning provides us the basis for an order-of-magnitude guestimate:

“…. since Skype launched the 3 Skypephone in November last year, there have been over over 100 million minutes of Skype-to-Skype calls by users of the 3 Skypephone and other mobile handsets with Skype and there are currently more than a million minutes of Skype-to-Skype calls each day on 3 mobiles in the UK.”

So out of 16 billion Skype-to-Skype minutes each quarter (as reported in the last eBay quarterly analyst call), it would appear that, at the current > 1 million minutes/day on 3, 75 to 100 million minutes per quarter are via mobile handsets. Hmmm, that makes about 0.5%  to 0.8% of all Skype-to-Skype minutes.

Why can 3 offer this service at such low prices? As explained by iSkoot CEO Mark Jacobstein at eComm 2008 last March, there are no termination charges for Skype-to-Skype calls, even when one Skype session is on an iSkoot server.

P.S. – Want to keep up-to-date on these issues? opens a week Monday.

Full disclosure: the author uses iSkoot on a BlackBerry Bold when out of the office; he has also experienced successful use on a Nokia N95.

Tags: Skype, iSkoot, Skypephone, Skype Mobile, eComm2008, Mark Jacobstein, Tags: TelecommTV, Tony Chan

Borderless Communicator Hudson Barton has spent the last few years as the “keeper of the ‘real users’ statistic”, a measure of Skype usage that attempts to understand the demographics of Skype’s user base and put it into some sort of perspective so that it can be compared with other communication services.

There are only five public statistics provided by Skype in their reporting. First is the number of users online in the lower right corner of the Skype client. With each eBay quarterly report we get to see gross revenue generated by Skype, the cumulative number of Skype accounts opened as well as minutes of Skype-to-Skype calls and minutes of SkypeOut calls.

I have posted a couple of times about the fallacy of the cumulative number of Skype accounts as it gives no indication of “active” Skype usage over, say, the last quarter or, expressed more succinctly, how many accounts were really used for a Skype call of any type in the previous quarter? It’s based on stale data; this particular number ranks right up there with “how many hamburgers sold”.

However, by tracking the number of users online several times per day over the past few years, Hudson feels he has gained some perspective on Skype’s growth.

Sources of Skype Growth
by Hudson Barton

A question was raised the other day that the raw “real user” statistic could not adequately answer. That question was “Is Skype growth coming from new users or from changes in the pattern of Skype use?” So here is a deeper analysis that answers what the raw “real users” statistic fails to fully capture.

In 2005 and 2006, the amplitude of the daily usage wave was growing.   That is to say, the daily highs were growing relative to the lows (after discounting regional distortions)… 10% per annum faster in fact.  Skype usage was increasing in the middle of the workday relative to off-peak hours.  People were not using Skype as a general communication utility for inbound and outbound calling and presence.  Rather, they appear to have been using Skype for special work-related purposes like outbound long distance calling to save money.

In 2007 and 2008, the trend reversed.   The amplitude of the daily usage wave started shrinking.  The lows have been growing relative to the highs … 20% per annum faster.  It appears that people began using Skype for normal, essential and basic communication, staying online for longer stretches of time or even around the clock in order to receive inbound calls and to mark their presence.   Although we don’t know the precise motivation for this change in behavior, it could be related to the expanding availability of unmetered broadband.  Electricity is the only variable cost associated with keeping your Skype device running 24/7. So the trend is mostly due to a broadening of American and European usage…. folks in industrialized countries are staying in the Skype cloud around the clock with either computers, mobile devices or proxies such as iSkoot.

Today, the peak of the Skype usage wave is at about 14.5 million and the trough is about 7.2 million (out of 36 million total “real users”).  The comparable graph for a “phone” company (or a VOIP operator like Vonage) would show a usage wave with an amplitude of zero; all users are by definition online all the time.   If Skype’s usage trends continue, it will begin to look more and more like an indispensable communications utility and less like a mere disruption to the communications status quo.

At noon EST (GMT-5) today Skype had almost 11.2 million users online. This has been a relatively fast ramp up, given that the 10 million users online level was crossed just under four weeks ago at the beginning of CES 2008. Have to wonder if it’s partly the impact of the MySpace implementation. Of note is that Hudson Barton figures that the number of “real users” has increased by 2.4 million in January.

Following up on a CES 2008 announcement, on Tuesday, Sony released a system software update for its PlayStation Portable PSP-2000 (version 3.90) that includes a Skype client. I had a Skype conversation with someone using this new offering and found it to have excellent quality voice. It does require that you be in a WiFi zone along with a PSP headse, the Remote Control and a Memory Stick Duo. This edition of Skype provides voice only that also allows SkypeOut calls. See the video at the link above for a demonstration. No keyboard, no chat.

Tags: Skype, Hudson Barton, Sony PSP-2000, PlayStation®Portable

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Having reflected on Skype’s accomplishments in 2007 and some of the more interesting devices and technologies that have crossed my way, now for my projections for 2008. (In the interest of enhanced objectivity — not that I can be totally objective — I have yet to read Phil’s 37 Sketchy 2008 Skype Predictions or Andy’s The Road in 2008 (links below after you have read this <gr>).

1. eBay will appoint a new Skype CEO in the first quarter. Andy has his insights into the search.

2. The new CEO will focus on “Delight the User”

• Introduce customer support plans (limited free and premium paid)
• Provide <24 hour response time on customer support requests
• Hire a Chief Marketing Officer who understands the role of, and process for, marketing a technology platform to both consumers and small businesses.
• Provide guidelines on optimizing end user configurations for highest quality voice and video.
• Set challenging goals for increasing SkypeIn and SkypeOut minutes used.
• Change Skype business and management structure to support the development and marketing of platforms as opposed to services
• Build a “Skype Inside” marketing program for Skype hardware
• Build a blogger relations program
• Improve dialogues with Developer Partners

3. Skype will introduce multi-party video conferencing (may initially only be three party)

4. Skype will focus on licensing two platforms:

• Skype real time conversation infrastructure (to additional social networking platforms beyond MySpace)
• Skype Developer API Toolkit: to include web services support

5. Skype users will rush out to replace their PC’s with Dual Core processors and their webcams with Logitech Carl-Zeiss optics webcams to take full advantage of Skype High Quality Video.

6. Skype will revitalize the Skype hardware program, improving hardware partner relationships, building a more effective hardware distribution channel (especially in North America) and building consumer awareness of Skype as a premium real time conversation offering.

• Skype will figure out how to open a Skype store for the 3.5 million Canadians.who have registered on Skype.

7. Skype will have to support emergency services for customers with SkypeIn numbers in countries requiring this.

• SkypeIn numbers for Canada will become available within three months of providing emergency services access for UK SkypeIn numbers.

8. The Skype Partner program’s business solutions providers will start to gain significant traction amongst the small and professional services business community.

9. Skype will execute on some form of significantly enhanced business relationship with Google.

10. Skypephone will become available in the U.S. via T-Mobile (and the Skypephone will be modified to support the required additional 850 MHz GSM band.)

11. Skype will upgrade its presence engine to deal with the fact that we may have multiple concurrent logins, especially on at least one PC and one mobile device.

12. Skype will gain significant placement on mobile devices.

• How extensively this goes depends on the (low cost) availability of “public” WiFi and./or 3G network access.
• note that I did not necessarily say there will be a mobile device Skype VoIP client.
• Should more (GSM) carriers invoke UMA/GAN we will see Skype continue the current “mobile” trend of IM over the data network with voice connectivity over the carrier’s inherent voice network.

13. Skype will conclude deals for local termination services in many more countries to improve SkypeIn and SkypeOut call quality.

14. Someone at Skype will review all the SkypeIn provider contracts to ensure we can keep our SkypeIn numbers permanently. (And Londoners will learn that their area code is simply “020″, not “020n”.)

15.eBay will begin reporting Skype usage numbers that are meaningful, such as number of users who actually made at least one Skype call in the previous quarter.

Will be interesting to see how much of these predictions actually play out but one can always hope for the best.

Happy New Year and Happy Skyping in 2008!

And for other predictions:

• Phil Wolff’s 37 Sketchy 2008 Skype Predictions
• Andy Abramson: The Road in 2008
• Ken Camp articulates his perspectives on Mobility, VoIP, Video, SOAP/SaaS and Social Media/Social Networking in his Unified Communications Watch List 2008. Well worth a read, especially for his comments on the decline of Windows Mobile — a trend I have also noticed.

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Skype revenue up, profitable for 2nd consecutive quarter, but usage down?

eBay’s quarterly earnings conference this afternoon revealed little about Skype; we got the usual numbers:

In the more detailed presentation by CFO Bob Swan, he provided two additional numbers:

• Skype-to-Skype Minutes: 7.1 million, down from 7.7 million in Q1
• SkypeOut Minutes: 1.3 million, flat from Q1

and stated that Skype’s activation numbers were not where they would like them to be. In her earlier summary presentation, eBay CEO Meg Whitman mentioned the WalMart retail partnership, three objectives for Skype:

• build the user base
• expand the Skype ecosystem
• improved call quality,

and closed with the single remark Skype “needs more user activity” as an issue to be addressed in Q3. During the Q&A with questions from analysts, who are supposed to be tracking the company’s activities, there were NO questions about Skype. Maybe being 5% of the overall eBay revenue, yet profitable, is the formula to not attract their attention.

Over the past 24 hours I (i) attended my 10th Research in Motion Annual Meeting in Waterloo (makers of the Blackberry) where I came away with a very detailed understanding of RIM’s business activity and where they are going and (ii) this afternoon listened to the eBay earnings conference where I came away with little additional understanding of eBay’s Skype business. So here’s my take:

The positives:

• sustained revenues and a second consecutive quarter of profitability
  • update: impact of new pricing (see link below)
• US user registrations grew 20% to 25% compared to 12% overall growth
  • based on the assumption above tying revenue to user registrations
  • is this a direct result of the WalMart retail effort?

The concerns:

• user voice activity is in decline
• US revenues remain in the 15% to 16% range
• total user accounts becomes more of a meaningless number. In my experience with direct marketing, you know that customer databases became stale over time.

Om questions “how is the revenue growing when everything is either trending down or flattening”? Update: Alec Saunders reminds us that Skype introduced a couple of pricing changes which had minimal impact for those of us who primarily use Skype’s Unlimited North American calling plan but have do help to explain both increased revenues and lwoer usage.

While eBay provides the bare minimum of information required under SEC regulations, many companies will provide additional information that does not compromise their overall competitive position. Based not only what I heard from RIM but also what is provided by other telecom carriers here is what I would like to hear in their quarterly earnings report:

• actual number of active accounts at the end of the quarter
  • accounts that actually placed at least one call during the quarter
• % breakdown of revenue by communications services, hardware royalties, partner software services and other
• Skype margins and the three usual cost lines: Sales & Marketing, R&D, G&A

eBay has to be an analyst’s nightmare, given there are three basic businesses: marketplaces, financial services and telecom services, each of which have different financial models and financing requirements. At least these numbers for each of eBay’s units would provide better shareholder and analyst guidance in valuing the company. AT&T does it (requires Excel); RIM does it: 76% devices, 16% service, 5% software, 3% other.

And when I asked at the RIM meeting why they had shipped 2.4 million units but only had 1.2 million activations, it came out that the difference can largely be attributed to users buying upgrades. So effectively it comes out that there is huge loyalty amongst Blackberry users, so much so that new features and services are driving a significant portion of their hardware revenue. In my mini-analysis above, it come out that Skype’s US user growth is substantial (even if the actual numbers are off by as much as 10% to 15%). What other information could we learn about Skype without giving away the business from having these types of numbers?

I’ll leave it to another post for my suggestions as to how to increase user activity; but suffice it to say I had three Skype partner experiences today to suggest that they look hard at the Skype Developer Partner program as a key element for driving new user registrations. Oh, and read the Voice 2.0 Manifesto. SunRocket didn’t; Vonage hasn’t. Skype’s Developer Partner program now has the Voice 2.0 seedlings to be positioned for success.

Tags: eBay, Skype, Voice 2.0 Manifesto, SunRocket, Vonage

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With the turbulent migration to VoIP occurring in 2006, it will be interesting to track usage and subscriber data to support the impact of VoIP and Voice 2.0 business models. A couple of items that appeared this week:

Skype vs Vonage in the UK: Heather Hopkins of Hitwise, an online Internet usage monitoring service, has reported on Skype, Bebo and Vonage — Why Skype Visits are Through the Roof. Her chart that results from tracking visits to websites for each demonstrates how UK visits to Skype have climbed from ~1% of UK site visits in early February to 6.9% mid-May while Vonage has stagnated in the 0.8% range. And this happened in a market with no free SkypeOut! Score one for market penetration by a Voice 2.0 business model.

Earlier this week I reported on the $15 million funding of Bebo, a social network with 24 million members predominantly in the European market and Andrew Hansen’s observation as to how Skype support was probably a factor in their financing success. Heather goes on in her post to report on how Bebo is responsible for over 50% of the upstream sources for visits to Skype. And this number has increased with a Bebo-Skype partnership tied into the launch of Skypecasts. A Voice 2.0 application driving adoption and market penetration in the social networking space.

Acknowledgement to Mathew Ingram for the post that brought my attention to Heather’s post through the Comments.

Telus – a legacy Canadian telco in transition: Jon Arnold has posted some numbers provided at the Telus President’s Symposium held last Thursday in Toronto. Telus is the primary (and legacy) telco in Alberta and British Columbia and has a very successful national mobile network in Telus Mobility. They have a reputation for rapidly introducing new technology — they were the first to have an EV-DO offering in major Canadian metropolitan markets; also they went through a strike last summer that was essentially about transitioning labor costs to a level consistent with a Voice 2.0 business model. Telus has continued to be profitable; their stock price has risen over fivefold since mid-2003.

This is the picture of a telco successfully transitioning to a Voice 2.0 model reflecting the value is in applications (as opposed to access and directory) where:

• Talk is the baseline through provision of connectivity and directory services, yet
• The meter is going off — as evidenced by their reduced long distance activity and the reduced reliability on voice for revenues.
• Applications (as evidenced by their increasing reliance on Data and Wireless) are becoming the value creators.